OECD

Portugal: Anaemic growth

Growth resumed in the second quarter of 2009, but will remain subdued as private sector deleveraging constrains the recovery. As a result, unemployment is likely to increase to around 10% in 2010. The budget deficit is set to rise further in 2010 and 2011, following a substantial increase in 2009 due to the combined impact of the fiscal stimulus and the recession. Core inflation, after dropping to near zero, may increase rather slowly over the projection period.

Long-standing current account imbalances, translated into rising indebtedness, limit the pace of recovery, which may be somewhat weaker than that of the euro area. Despite anaemic growth, designing and gradually implementing fiscal consolidation is a major priority. Structural reforms to promote competitiveness are key to achieving higher growth through more dynamic exports, while the pursuit of education reform should help foster longer-term potential.

©OECD Observer 2010




Economic data

GDP growth: -1.8% Q1 2020/Q4 2019
Consumer price inflation: 0.9% Apr 2020 annual
Trade (G20): -4.3% exp, -3.9% imp, Q1 2020/Q4 2019
Unemployment: 8.4% Apr 2020
Last update: 9 July 2020

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