After falling by 2.2% in 2009, real GDP is projected to grow slowly, by 1.4% in 2010 and 1.7% in 2011, led by business investment and exports. This will not be enough to prevent the unemployment rate from rising until the beginning of 2011, resulting in inflation of below 1% per year. Households have reacted to rising job and financial-market uncertainty by increasing their saving, offsetting the positive impacts of higher public transfers and improved terms of trade.

Ministers responsible for employment from around the world gathered at the OECD on 28-29 September to discuss the jobs crisis. In our eighth OECD Observer ministers' roundtable, we ask six representatives, from Canada (co-Chair), Italy (co-Chair), Sweden (vice-Chair), France, New Zealand, and Chile, which is a candidate for OECD accession: What new policy actions are you taking to improve the jobs situation in your country?

Real GDP is projected to fall by about 3% in 2009, with the pace of contraction gradually diminishing through the year. The recovery in 2010 is likely to be slow, with output growing below potential rates throughout the year.

Record fall in GDP; Economy; Gender learning; Other news; Soundbites; Plus ça change...

Speech by Philippe Marland, Ambassador, Permanent Representative of France to the OECD, delivered at the OECD on 18 March to mark the 2009 Journée internationale de la Francophonie, a day dedicated to the French-speaking world.

Growth is likely to fall below 1% in 2008 as a whole amid sharply deteriorating global economic conditions in the latter part of the year, due primarily to the financial crisis. The impact of this turbulence will reverberate well into 2009, with negative growth expected until the middle of the year, followed by a gradual pick-up of activity to above potential rates by mid-2010.

2008 will be a decisive year in the battle against climate change. Hopefully, it will see us forge an international consensus so an agreement can be reached in Copenhagen in 2009 that will allow us to build on the Kyoto Protocol.

Long ago I gave up trying to break through the so-called “glass ceiling” that has kept women like me out of higher management. Instead I decided to create new enterprises in which management could be reinvented by women. On 8 March 2005, I launched a business incubator devoted exclusively to projects by female entrepreneurs.

Can cutting down on sugar subsidies lead to healthier trade competition and trimmer prices? The 2005 European Union market reforms aim to thin EU farmers’ sugar subsidies and cut out obsolete sugar mills. Sugar Policy Reform in the European Union and in World Sugar Markets maps out how this might work.

Climate change is a pressing challenge, requiring leadership and determined action. At the same time, people are concerned that policies do not put them at an economic disadvantage or unnecessarily undermine their welfare.

Can governments balance these concerns? The OECD’s Environment Policy Committee meets at ministerial level on 28-29 April 2008 under the theme of global competitiveness. Some non-OECD developing countries will also participate, as will stakeholders from business, labour and civil society.

After slowing in 2007, growth is projected to average below 2% in 2008, with a weak first half but some rebound thereafter, and continuing at near potential rates in 2009. Job creation will continue, albeit at a slower pace, allowing for further slight declines in the unemployment rate. Following several years of budgetary consolidation, no further improvement in the budget deficit is expected, with a reduction in both revenues and spending in relation to GDP.

Cotis leads top French bureau–
Jean-Philippe Cotis, the OECD’s chief economist, has been appointed as director general of the French national statistics institute INSEE (Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques, or the National Statistics and Economic Studies Institute).

Japan, the US, the Netherlands and Italy present the face of Secretary-General Angel Gurría’s newly appointed team of deputy secretaries-general (DSGs) to guide the OECD into the next era. Mari Amano will bring his 34 years of experience as a Japanese foreign affairs official to take charge of the Development Cluster and Policy Coherence dossier.

Kiyotaka Akasaka, deputy secretary-general at the OECD, has been appointed United Nations Undersecretary general for communications and public information. Mr Akasaka came to the OECD in 2003 and has most recently been responsible for the OECD’s work on development, the environment, sustainable development and for partnerships with other international organisations. Mr Akasaka takes up his new post in spring 2007.