The US economy is facing extremely difficult conditions. The financial crisis has intensified at a time when growth had already been weakened by the prolonged housing downturn. A credit crunch is likely to result in a pronounced contraction in activity over the near term and a further deterioration of the labour market.

External shocks from the run-up in commodity prices and then international financial turbulence have brought Japan’s expansion to an end. Equity prices have plummeted and the yen has appreciated substantially. With falling exports, activity is projected to remain weak through 2009, pushing up unemployment and reducing headline inflation to near zero. A recovery in domestic demand is projected to lift output growth to around 1% during 2010, still short of the growth of potential.

The euro area economy has slipped into recession this year, with tighter financial conditions, negative wealth effects, weaker housing market activity and greater uncertainty all reducing domestic demand. Growth is expected to remain below potential until the middle of 2010, before picking-up as the effects of monetary policy easing and the dissipation of stress in global financial markets emerge. Lower commodity prices and the emergence of a sizable negative output gap as production slows below potential will dampen inflationary pressures, with headline inflation projected to fall to around 1.5% during 2009.

After a strong start into 2008, activity has contracted reflecting muted consumption and weakening export growth. Activity is projected to contract further in 2009 on the back of falling investment spending and weakness in the main trading partner economies. Private consumption will make a small positive contribution to growth because disinflation increases the purchasing power of past wage settlements. Activity is expected to pick up in late 2009 and return towards trend growth rates in the second half of 2010.

Growth is likely to fall below 1% in 2008 as a whole amid sharply deteriorating global economic conditions in the latter part of the year, due primarily to the financial crisis. The impact of this turbulence will reverberate well into 2009, with negative growth expected until the middle of the year, followed by a gradual pick-up of activity to above potential rates by mid-2010.

The recession in Italy, which began early this year, is likely to extend through much of 2009, as in many other OECD countries. Global financial turmoil hit an economy already weakened by several years of low productivity growth, deteriorating competitiveness and high public debt, though solid job creation and falling unemployment had been bright spots. Recovering confidence towards the end of 2009 should allow output to accelerate significantly during 2010.

The economic downturn that started in 2007, as exports slowed in response to the deflating US housing bubble, continues to worsen. Sharply deteriorating conditions in global financial markets, generalised softness in the US economy and receding commodity prices are amplifying export weakness and dragging down domestic spending. Output has been contracting since August 2008, and slack is projected to grow until the global financial crisis has run its course and external demand bounces back in 2010. The domestic banking and housing sectors are in relatively good shape, however, and no government bail-outs have taken place.

Economic conditions have deteriorated markedly and forward-looking indicators suggest a further sharp weakening in activity over the next quarters. The adjustment in the construction sector is expected to continue, while house prices are likely to fall further. These factors, combined with turmoil in the banking and financial sectors, are already cutting domestic demand. Growth may resume only in late 2009. Unemployment is set to rise rapidly, but should stabilise in 2010. Inflation should recede, reflecting the recent falls in energy and food prices and the increasing output gap.

GDP growth could well weaken from 2.5 % in 2008 to around 1.75 % in 2009 before picking up to 2.75 % in 2010. This would still imply that, despite the depressed international environment, the impact of the financial crisis and the fall in the terms of trade should be relatively contained. Unemployment is likely to increase, however, and inflation may dip below 3% in 2010.

Largely as a result of a worsening external environment, growth has declined and the economy is set to contract in 2009 before recovering in 2010. Headline inflation is projected to ease as energy and food prices fall, economic slack increases and import prices decelerate.

Activity is projected to contract slightly and, thereafter, growth may remain below potential well into 2010, before rebounding on the back of easier monetary conditions, renewed growth in real incomes and a recovery in world trade. As a result, unemployment will increase over the projection period. Headline inflation should decline with the fall in energy and food prices, although core inflation should show more persistence.

Growth slowed in the first half of 2008 and is not expected to return to trend again until 2010. The slowdown started with weaker domestic demand in 2008, as the inflation spike eroded consumers’ purchasing power, and will continue as export market growth slows. The rebound is projected to be driven by both private consumption and exports. Inflation is expected to decelerate substantially in 2009 as the impact of one-off government measures wears off and global energy and commodity prices fall.

After years of strong expansion, the construction boom is now over and falling house prices have put an end to debt-financed consumption growth. As the impact of global financial turmoil materialises, exports are likely to remain weak during 2009, leading businesses to cut back investment.

Economic activity has slowed substantially, mainly due to a decline in investment. Output growth is projected to be subdued in 2009, before recovering during 2010. Unemployment is likely to drift up during 2009, but should stabilise in 2010. Lower commodity prices and growing slack in the economy should bring down inflation from the current high rate.

Economic activity has already weakened due to slowing domestic demand. Growth is expected to be subdued until mid-2009 in the context of a sluggish external environment, but to firm gradually thereafter. Inflation is set to decline, but the persistent differential with the euro area is likely to remain.

Against the background of global financial turbulence, economic activity is set to decline in 2009, before picking up with the recovery in world trade and with higher confidence following international financing support. Inflation should decelerate towards the 3% target as wage growth remains moderate. The current account deficit should narrow.

After a long period of unbalanced growth, the Icelandic economy has entered a deep recession following the failure of its major banks. The economy is projected to shrink until early 2010 and unemployment to soar over the next two years. Following a large depreciation of the currency, inflation is projected to spike higher, though to fall back sharply once the exchange rate effects have passed through and the effects of substantial economic slack come to bear. The current account deficit should decline markedly.

Activity is contracting as the severe housing market correction has weakened the wider economy, and the weakness will persist well into 2009. Growth will recover in 2010 as the housing construction cycle bottoms out and the financial turmoil wanes.

Korea has been hit hard by the global financial crisis and the earlier commodity price shock, which together ended the expansion and pushed up inflation. Sharp depreciation of the won since mid-September has further clouded the economic outlook. Growth is projected to fall to below 3% in 2009 and then pick up gradually as the world economy improves.

The international financial crisis is sharply reducing economic growth, initially in the financial sector, but subsequently in broader domestic demand. These effects should persist into 2010. Consequently, unemployment will rise further, while core inflation will fall slowly.

Economic growth is set to fall well below potential in 2008 and 2009, before gradually recovering in 2010. The weak US economy and a fall in oil production will cut exports over the next several quarters, while the effects of the financial turmoil will depress domestic demand growth. Activity will recover through 2010 as global economic conditions improve. Inflation will return to near the target rate as commodity prices fall, activity slows and monetary tightening keeps expectations anchored, although the recent sharp depreciation of the peso will put upward pressure on prices.

After coming to a halt in mid-2008, growth will turn negative in 2009. The following year a recovery will get under way as stronger domestic demand is underpinned by easier monetary policy, real income growth is supported by lower inflation, and exporters benefit from stronger world trade. However, a tight labour market will create some persistence in core inflation.

New Zealand has entered recession ahead of other OECD countries, a victim of simultaneous domestic and foreign shocks. The outlook remains subdued because the large macroeconomic imbalances built up over the past decade–inflation, housing overvaluation, high household debt and a huge current account deficit–will take some time to unwind.

After the remarkable performance of the past few years, the Norwegian economy is now slowing toward its potential rate of growth. Domestic demand is moderating as a result of the increased cost of borrowing, falling house prices and declining terms of trade. Inflation remains higher than desirable and rising labour costs are undermining competitiveness. The off-shore (oil and gas) sector will continue to support mainland demand through spill-over from oil investment.

The pace of expansion decelerated moderately in the first half of 2008 and recent data point to a further weakening of activity. Amid the global slowdown, growth is projected to fall below potential, although income tax cuts should support private consumption. With declining oil prices and persisting, albeit abating, demand pressures in labour and product markets, core inflation is expected to subside more gradually than headline inflation.

Economic activity moderated in the first half of 2008, as investment and export growth softened. In line with the recent intensification of the financial crisis and expectations of a significant slowing in Portugal’s export markets, activity is expected to contract until the second half of 2009, before recovering slowly in 2010. The unemployment rate is set to increase from its already high level. The sizeable negative output gap and lower food and energy prices will reduce inflation.

Although the Slovak Republic will continue to maintain the highest growth rate among OECD countries over the next two years, activity is expected to decelerate significantly in 2009. In particular investment spending and trade growth are likely to be adversely affected by the effects of the financial crisis. Growth is envisaged to return to close to its potential rate towards the end of the projection horizon. Inflation rates should decline from their currently high levels, but to stay above euro area levels.

GDP is projected to fall in 2009, as residential construction continues to contract, before recovering modestly in 2010. Unemployment will continue to increase substantially. Inflation should recede as a large negative output gap opens up and commodity prices moderate, while falling imports should significantly reduce the current account deficit.

The Swedish economy stalled in the first half of 2008 and is expected to weaken in the near term, as the effects of the international financial crisis take their toll. Consumption is projected to pick up late next year as the turmoil subsides and thanks to further income tax cuts and lower interest rates. Export growth should gradually recover as Sweden’s export markets expand again. Residential investment is expected to contract, with weaker house prices and confidence compounding unfavourable demographic patterns. Employment and labour force participation are both expected to decline, and labour productivity growth is expected to remain weak in the coming quarters.

Economic activity is expected to contract somewhat in 2009, due to poorer export prospects and a diminished contribution of financial services, followed by a rebound in 2010 as global financial market turbulence abates. Inflation is projected to fall back to 1%, reflecting lower oil prices, the opening of an output gap and wage moderation. A further reduction in policy interest rates may be needed, but monetary policy stimulus will have to be withdrawn in the course of 2010. Fiscal policy should allow automatic stabilisers to operate.

The economy slowed in 2008 as weakness in domestic demand was compounded by the international slowdown in the wake of financial market turbulence. Growth is expected to decline to below 2% in 2009 before recovering to 4.2% in 2010, in line with the global recovery.

The expansion that gathered pace during 2007 was sustained in the first half of 2008, although activity appears to be slackening owing to a worsening of financial conditions. Domestic demand has been the main driver of growth. The trade surplus is shrinking, essentially due to buoyant demand for imports, and the current account has shifted into deficit. Dynamism in the labour market continued to deliver robust job creation. Inflation picked up considerably through mid-year.

GDP growth has fallen, from a peak of nearly 12% to a pace in the high single digits. Export growth is weakening and, with slower capital formation, domestic demand is also projected to ease in 2009, before recovering in 2010. Disinflation is on course to continue, in part due to moderating commodity prices but also reflecting slower output growth.

Growth has continued to slacken to under 8% by the second quarter of 2008. Inflation is high, driven by commodity prices, but the peak appears to have passed. The current account deficit has risen substantially and there is downward pressure on the exchange rate. The economy is projected to slow further over the next year and to recover in tandem with the world economy in 2010.

The fall-out from the global financial crisis will sharply reduce real GDP growth in Russia through 2009, with a pick-up expected in 2010. With a reversal in the substantial rise in oil and metal prices, the pattern of terms of trade gains fuelling rapid growth in domestic demand has come to an end. Inflation has risen strongly, but may now have peaked and should decline in 2009-10. Fiscal and current account balances are expected to worsen sharply.

After several years of robust expansion, activity is projected to moderate and inflation to recede. The slowing world economy, tighter financial conditions and lower investments in mining and energy will all slow growth. Inflation will decline gradually as second-round wage increases from high commodity prices wear off and expectations are reanchored to the central bank’s target. Past current account surpluses have disappeared as copper prices have retreated from high levels.

Real GDP will continue to decline in 2009, reflecting mostly a sharp drop in domestic demand, as gross fixed investment is expected to drop in real terms by over 6% and consumer spending by 1.6% compared with 2008. Growth is projected to gradually pick up by the end of 2009 and into 2010, driven by stronger exports. Currently high inflationary pressures are expected to weaken in 2009, but the past real exchange rate appreciation will make the desired export driven recovery challenging.

Strong domestic demand continued to underpin growth in the first half of 2008. Investment was particularly robust. Imports are growing faster than exports, but the trade and current accounts are still in healthy surpluses. Inflation rose substantially following a hike in regulated domestic fuel prices in May.

Global financial turmoil is deepening the slowdown, with the pace of economic activity not expected to pick up substantially before the latter part of 2009. The central bank has already cut its policy rate in reaction to the crisis in financial markets.

Economic activity is likely to slow significantly in 2009, driven in particular by a sharp deceleration in investment in construction. The following year, economic growth should return toward trend as both fixed investment and private consumption recover. Headline inflation is expected to subside due to falling commodity prices, although planned public wage increases will exert upward pressure on core inflation.

This year’s economic slowdown is projected to continue, reflecting weaker consumption growth and worsening terms of trade. Real GDP growth is expected to fall to about 3% in 2009 before rebounding to above 4% in 2010, with the FIFA World Cup providing a fillip to activity. Inflation is expected to turn down, returning to the central bank’s target range in 2010, as a result of the monetary tightening over the past two years and falling food and energy prices. Current account deficits will remain large with lower export prices broadly offsetting weaker import volume growth.

Ireland has been the OECD’s fastest growing economy for several years, driven by strong consumer demand, fixed investment and a buoyant global demand in areas like IT, pharmaceuticals and financial services.

Healthy gains in private consumption have helped to keep GDP growth above trend so far this year. However, the correction in residential construction is likely to accelerate over the near term, and housing wealth could decline which, together with weaker labour market conditions, could lead to lower consumption growth over time. Real GDP growth should therefore slow to a pace below potential in 2008 and then recover in 2009, although there are considerable downside risks. Headline inflation has recently moved up, but core inflation seems to have stabilised near 2% and, assuming that energy prices level out, inflationary pressures should remain fairly moderate over the projection period.

The economic expansion–the longest in Japan’s post-war history–continues despite some deceleration in the pace of growth since early 2007. A further tightening of the labour market is projected to reverse the decline in wages, helping to sustain output growth of some 1.5-2% in 2008-09 and pushing inflation into positive territory.

The expansion has continued but at a slower pace than in 2006. Higher interest rates, a stronger euro and tighter credit conditions are all damping activity. But the outlook remains relatively good, with growth projected to return to its potential rate following some slight near-term weakening. Rising employment and a moderate upturn in wage growth will underpin household incomes and consumption. Inflation has veered up due to a sharp rise in energy and food prices, but is expected to decelerate to below 2%.

After slowing in the second quarter, growth has picked up in the third quarter on the back of strong domestic demand. The output gap is likely to be almost closed. Growth is projected to advance at near trend rates during 2008 and 2009. Following some near-term headwinds, unemployment may continue to edge down but at a much slower pace than in the recent past. The slower projected expansion largely reflects a diminishing contribution from net exports that is not fully compensated by stronger private consumption.

After slowing in 2007, growth is projected to average below 2% in 2008, with a weak first half but some rebound thereafter, and continuing at near potential rates in 2009. Job creation will continue, albeit at a slower pace, allowing for further slight declines in the unemployment rate. Following several years of budgetary consolidation, no further improvement in the budget deficit is expected, with a reduction in both revenues and spending in relation to GDP.

GDP slowed in the first half of 2007, as export growth weakened, rebounded in the third quarter but may weaken again in the fourth. Growth over the course of 2008-09 is projected at near its potential rate of just under 1.5%. Unemployment, which continued to fall through the first half of 2007, should decline further, but at a slower rate. The recent pickup in price inflation may persist into 2008 and 2009.

GDP grew at an above-trend pace of close to 3% through the first three quarters of 2007. However, growth is expected to be weaker in coming quarters, as both investment and consumer demand are likely to be damped by much weaker activity in the housing market, together with tighter credit conditions. Consumer price inflation has dropped sharply and is expected to remain close to the 2% target over the next two years.

The economy has been operating above its estimated production potential, but is expected to decelerate noticeably in the short term as lower external demand and the marked currency appreciation damp activity. Yet growth is likely to rebound quite rapidly once the effects of these international factors disappear. A slowing in commodityprice increases, the federal goods and services tax cut and the stronger Canadian dollar should contribute to a temporary decline in inflation.

Output growth, which could reach 4.25% in 2007, is expected to slow gradually to 3.5% in 2008 and 3% in 2009, a pace close to the potential growth rate. This slowdown, which will be accompanied by a further tightening of monetary policy to keep inflation in line with the Reserve Bank’s inflation target, should ease strains in the labour market.

A slowdown in net exports and investment is expected to result in GDP growth decelerating from almost 3.5% in 2007 to about 2.5% in 2008 and 2009. Headline inflation is projected to temporarily move above 2% in the short term on account of rising oil and food prices.

Real GDP growth has moderated from its recent robust pace and is likely to slow further towards the country’s potential rate in the short term, though leaving the output gap positive. Domestic demand continues to underpin expansion, boosted by higher employment and real incomes. Inflation is projected to increase somewhat in response to rising cost pressures.

A policy-driven spike in inflation in the first half of 2008 is going to temporarily dent otherwise healthy economic conditions, and real GDP growth will dip below potential as the increases in indirect taxation and administered prices squeeze consumption. Underlying inflation is low, but is creeping up and further tightening of monetary conditions is expected.

GDP growth has slowed, but the positive output gap remains large, with labour and capacity shortages evident. The inflow of workers from abroad has allowed employment to rise strongly. Nevertheless, wage growth is now gaining momentum, and loss of competitiveness is expected to weigh down on growth in the coming years.

Output grew by 5% in 2006, and strong growth has continued into 2007, underpinned by a robust export performance and sustained strength in consumption. While healthy employment growth is projected to continue, leading to a further decline in unemployment, output growth is expected to moderate.

Activity has been strong so far in 2007, despite the impact of forest fires and a slowing of housing investment towards a more sustainable level. Growth is set to weaken in 2008, before edging up to around 4% in 2009. Inflation is likely to rise in light of demand pressures and the current account deficit is expected to remain large.

Growth decelerated markedly during 2007, reflecting fiscal consolidation. It is likely to recover over the projection period, supported by buoyant exports and gradually reaccelerating investment and consumption. Inflation is projected to decelerate towards the 3% target, as wage growth remains moderate. The external deficit should continue to improve.

Expansionary government measures have rekindled demand and inflation pressures at a time when imbalances in the economy remain substantial. Still, tight monetary policy is expected to eventually succeed in slowing the economy, taming inflation and reducing imbalances. However, the slow and uneven adjustment process leaves the economy vulnerable to changes in foreign investor sentiment, especially in a context of fragile global financial market conditions, and has increased the risk of a harder landing of the economy.

Activity was strong in the first half of 2007, but the slump in house building will slow growth substantially. GNP is expected to increase by 3% in real terms in 2008, which is considerably below the growth rate of potential output, but to recover to grow at 4.5% in 2009 as housing construction levels out at a sustainable level. Inflationary pressures will ease, but unemployment is likely to increase.

An acceleration of domestic demand, combined with continued buoyant exports, is projected to keep economic growth at around 5% in 2008-09. Strong demand from other Asian countries is sustaining export growth at double-digit rates, despite the appreciation of the won, which has helped to keep inflation below the Bank of Korea’s target zone.

Growth was well above that in other European economies in 2007. Largely unaffected by the turmoil on international markets due to its strong position in the mutual funds sector, financial services continued to be the main driver of economic growth. Strong private investment and manufacturing exports also contributed to the expansion. The improved employment prospects spread from cross-border workers to residents, enabling a gradual reduction in the unemployment rate. Despite a loss in price competitiveness, the recovery is set to weaken only moderately and growth is likely to remain above potential growth through to 2009.

After a moderate slowdown in 2007, reflecting a weakening of external demand, GDP growth is expected to accelerate in the course of 2008 and reach 4.25% in 2009. The approval of the fiscal reform should boost business confidence, underpinning stronger domestic and foreign investment.

The economic expansion remained strong in 2007 and is expected to reach 3% for the second year in a row. Over the projection period above-potential growth is projected to continue, reflecting both robust domestic demand and dynamic export markets. However, labour shortages are likely to persist, partly reflecting population ageing, which will increasingly hamper the expansion of the economy. Indeed, inflation pressures are expected to increase gradually.

Activity so far in 2007 has picked up markedly in a context of unprecedented high prices for New Zealand’s major commodity exports, maintaining pressure on resources and inflation. Monetary conditions have been tightened, while domestic risk spreads have widened in conjunction with the international financial market turbulence. These factors should cause growth to slow over the near term, allowing a moderation of inflation and eventual monetary easing.

After a long period of robust growth, which continued unabated in the first half of 2007, there are signs that mainland Norway (i.e. non-offshore sector) is reaching the peak of the cycle with a large positive output gap. Tightening monetary conditions are beginning to exert a cooling effect and further expansion is made difficult by very high capacity utilisation. Some of the forces that kept price increases down are diminishing and inflation is now picking up slightly.

The first half of 2007 saw an acceleration of economic activity, driven by booming domestic demand. Growing labour shortages have fuelled strong wage increases. The pick-up in unit labour costs and record-high capacity utilisation rates have darkened the inflation outlook. Persistent strength in domestic demand should support growth, but the current account deterioration is projected to continue.

The expansion has become more broadly based in 2007. Following a period of buoyant export growth, investment is picking up. Growth is expected to strengthen further in 2008 and 2009, largely driven by domestic demand. The still large negative output gap should drive inflation down in 2009. Though gradually declining, unemployment remains high and, as a result, wage increases are set to be moderate.

Economic growth is projected to ease to 7% by 2009 as the rate at which new export-oriented manufacturing capacity coming on stream declines. Unemployment is projected to fall to about 9.5% in 2009. Further disinflation will be slowed by higher food prices, increases in indirect taxes and the assumed euro changeover in 2009.

Economic growth is likely to slow in 2008 and 2009, as residential construction falls. Private consumption may decelerate, reflecting lower employment gains and tighter credit conditions. From a peak in late 2007, inflation should decline as demand pressures moderate.

After posting very strong growth in 2006, the Swedish economy cooled during 2007, due mainly to weaker export growth. Domestic demand is expected to continue to grow markedly in the near term as strong employment growth and income gains should boost private consumption.

Economic growth is expected to slow to about 2% in 2008 and 2009, close to the potential rate, with a diminished contribution from net exports. Employment should continue rising, although unemployment may not fall much further. Inflation is projected to rise modestly, reflecting past oil price rises and a high level of capacity utilisation. The government budget surplus will decline.

The economy, which had slowed down earlier in the year as a result of monetary tightening in 2006 and political uncertainties in the spring, gained momentum after the summer elections. In the absence of shocks, growth should settle at around 6% in 2008 and 2009.

GDP growth picked up in the first half of 2007. Private consumption continues to support activity on the heels of strong credit increases and rising incomes. The expansion of investment has been particularly sharp. Export performance remains robust. But a vigorous pickup in imports, especially of capital goods and intermediate inputs, is beginning to weigh on the trade surplus. Inflation remains well below the central target, despite an uptick in mid-year on the back of food price hikes.

After moderating in the second half of 2006, economic growth has accelerated again and is expected to reach almost 11.5% in 2007, leading to a widening of the output gap. The inflation rate is projected to increase to around 4.5% in 2007 and stabilise thereafter as weaker food prices are estimated to offset accelerating non-agricultural prices. Despite continued strong export growth, output is likely to slow in 2008 and 2009 as imports accelerate. Nonetheless, the current account surplus is projected to rise from around $350 billion in 2007 to over $500 billion in 2009, passing from 11.25 to 11.75% of GDP.

The economy grew rapidly in the fiscal year (FY) 2006, expanding by 9.4%. Strong growth was fuelled by a good performance of the agricultural sector and continued strength of industrial output. In the first half of FY 2007, investment remained buoyant, leading to improvements in the supply potential of the economy. With higher  interest and exchange rates, output growth is projected to gradually slow to 8.4% by 2009. The current account deficit is likely to widen from 1.1% of GDP in FY 2006 to 2% by 2009. Inflation, as measured by the GDP deflator, is expected to ease back somewhat over the projection  horizon as increases in food prices moderate.

Real GDP growth is set to accelerate in 2007, before moderating over the projection period as oil and metal prices stabilise at their current high levels. Domestic demand will remain strong, but the exceptional rates of investment growth observed in the first half will not be sustained. Fuelled by relaxed monetary conditions and the tightening of the labour market, inflation is set to hit double digits at the end of the year and will, in any case, exceed the central bank target of 8% by a wide margin.

It may seem puzzling to talk of an innovation gap in Russia, for so long a bastion of scientific knowledge. Yet that is precisely what has been developing since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Investment in research and development (R&D) has declined dramatically in the past decade, from just over 2% of GDP in 1990 to little more than 1% in 1999, compared with an OECD average of 2.2%.

Ireland, like the United States, is another place where times have been good. In fact, its average annual growth of 7.3% in 1990-98 was the highest in the OECD. Inflation is low and unemployment has fallen. Ireland has avoided some of the dips experienced by many other OECD economies too over the last decade. Its small open economy seems nicely balanced between the different business cycles of the United States on the one hand and the EU core on the other; whenever one has ailed, Ireland has been buoyed by the strength of the other. But this favourable disposition of the Irish economy does not explain the remarkable growth record of recent years.