The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2012 was released 12 November. Though oil prices are at historic highs, the future for energy is promising, provided the right policies are in place. 

For many years Brazil was the world’s largest biofuel producer, until it was overtaken by the US in 2006. Brazil’s biofuel production reached 28.5 billion litres in 2010, which according to International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates is 27% of world biofuel production, most of which is ethanol, only a small portion (2.4 billion litres) of that being biodiesel. For 2011, however, IEA estimates show a drop of more than 4 billion litres in Brazilian biofuel production compared with the previous year. But there is good reason to believe that this drop will prove temporary. 

The Cree Indians around Lake Athabasca used the gobs of tar they found there to waterproof their canoes. The potential of this mundane stuff to yield oil was gleaned early in the 20^th century, and Athabasca in Alberta, Canada sits on the world’s richest petroleum resource: more than 2 trillion barrels, as much as all the remaining recoverable conventional oil in the world.

Despite the mitigated outcome of the recent Copenhagen climate change summit, efforts to develop renewable energy still make progress. Practical solutions to improve the development and implementation of renewable energies and boost their efficiency are constantly being sought. Attention is starting to focus on cities. Considering the fact that about half of the world’s population now lives in an urban environment and produces about 70% of the world’s energy-related CO2 emissions, it is only logical that the development of renewable energy should be prioritised in cities and towns. Using the immediate environment and locally available resources, such as waste or heat from buildings, ensures that the schemes being implemented do not rely on costly national or international involvement. This also allows for local governments to improve local businesses and employment.

How will the financial crisis affect nuclear energy?

The International Energy Agency (IEA) is 35 years old in 2009. A sister organisation of the OECD, it offers a timely reminder that a co-ordinated public response to a crisis can succeed.

The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) is 50 years old. It predates the actual OECD itself, having started out in 1958 as a division of the Organisation for European Economic Co-operation. It has since grown to become a global body spanning four continents. What does its future hold?

With energy demand set to rise and pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, what is the potential of nuclear energy to expand? That depends, says the new Nuclear Energy Outlook from the NEA. The authors suggests two scenarios to 2050: a low expansion scenario whereby currently declared intentions are not fully realised, leading to limited expansion, with most new plants simply as replacement; and a high growth scenario, based on current plans and government statements.

Today, energy security is an indispensable subject even in general discussions about foreign policy. Securing needed energy resources is one of the prerequisites for ensuring sustainable economic growth. Dealing with the current rapid growth in demand for energy in Asia is a high priority on many agendas. As for Japan’s perspective on energy security co-operation, I would like to touch upon the following three points: security of supply, energy and the environment, and the importance in energy response of the International Energy Agency (IEA), a sister organisation of the OECD.

Thomas Edison’s assertion that “genius is 1% inspiration, 99% perspiration” is particularly pertinent to the solar energy sector. This remarkable technology could hold answers to so many of the world’s energy challenges, but only at the cost of hard effort and investment. Solar Energy Perspectives, the first in-depth study dedicated to solar technology from the International Energy Agency (IEA), a sister organisation of the OECD, gives a comprehensive analysis of solar energy’s potential as well as the policies required to increase its capacity in the coming decades. 

The Fukushima tragedy in Japan in March 2011 has unsettled the nuclear energy outlook. Nuclear power started out almost 60 years ago with the Obninsk plant near Moscow in 1954, but after strong growth in the 1960s and 1970s, the industry declined sharply in the 1980s due to costs, delays and safety concerns after the Three Mile Island accident in the US in 1979, and the Chernobyl accident in Ukraine in 1986.

How willing are you to pay more for renewable energy? Judging by a survey we previewed in 2010 (see here for instance) and whose results have now been published, the answer is: not that much. Greening Household Behaviour shows that while people may change their habits if given the right incentives and information, they are not quite as ready to dip deeply into their pockets.

How much more would you be willing to pay for renewable energy? Are environmental concerns a factor in how much you use your car? And are you really thinking about the environment when you buy organic food? All these questions, and more, are at the heart of the 2008 survey which forms the basis of Greening Household Behaviour. A part of the OECD’s Green Growth Strategy, this survey covered 10,000 households across ten OECD countries to determine how our day-to-day relationship with the environment may affect reforms, and is due for another round in 2011.

As biofuel production grew fourfold from 2000 to 2008, criticism of the industry seemed to increase nearly as dramatically. Production of these transport fuels, which are based on food crops such as grains, sugar cane and vegetable oils, competes with food crops and drives up food prices, experts argue. Also, from land-clearance needed for cultivation, production and use, these biofuels may actually increase, rather than reduce, greenhouse gas emissions.

Despite the repeated warnings about its effects on climate change, as well as resource depletion, the most recent projections from the World Energy Outlook 2009 show that coal will still remain the principal powergenerating fuel for decades to come. In fact, its usage is set to double by 2030, 5% more compared with pre-existing projections. The adjustment takes into account a projected 10% consumption increase in non-OECD Asia, as well as an 8% decrease in the OECD area. Nowadays, an additional 217 GW of coalfired capacity is being developed throughout the world, over 80% of which is located in non-OECD countries, mostly in China.

Biotechnology has steadily evolved to become a potential motor of environmentally sustainable production and a proven source of a diverse range of innovations in agriculture, industry and medicine. Could we be at the dawn of a new bioeconomy? Public policies will influence the answer.

As energy ministers from more than 50 countries gather for the International Energy Forum in Cancún, Mexico, at the end of March, the need–and opportunity– for dialogue between producers and consumers is more relevant than ever.

Once hailed as the imminent successor to fossil fuels, biofuels are hitting some rough patches. Is it time to apply the brakes?

Global electricity demand declined in 2009 for the first time since the end of World War II according to OECD estimates. Electricity demand experienced a constant climb over the second half of the 20th century through the oil crises of the 1970s, the Black Monday crash of 1987, and on through the dot-com bubble bursting at the turn of the millennium as development countered all downward forces. The credit crunch of 2008 though, has resulted in a drop of as much as 1.6% based on OECD figures derived from the IMF’s latest GDP growth forecast for 2009.

Environmental policies can change people’s daily habits, as a new OECD survey shows.

Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is a key objective of energy policies in many countries. As energy consumption will continue to increase in the medium and long term, even if the recent financial crisis might curtail this rise momentarily, there is a general consensus on the need to foster the development and use of all carbon-free options for energy supply. What role can nuclear energy play?

Oil-producing MENA countries can expect steep drops in their current account balances in 2009 due to falling crude oil prices and lower global demand during the economic crisis. Non-oil producers' balances should remain steadier, albeit negative, according to recent statistics.

On 2 November, Morocco launched a US$9 billion solar energy programme. With fi ve power plants, the programme aims for a total installed capacity of 2,000 MW by 2020-equivalent to almost 40% of the country's electricity production.

Through the ages, the countries of the Middle East and North Africa have been known for their great feats in engineering. The marvels are legion, from the Mesopotamian irrigation systems to the Great Pyramid. But did you know that the first concentrated solar steam engine was built near Cairo in 1914? A century later, solar energy is again putting the region on the cusp of new exploits, this time in renewable energy.

Oil prices rebounded but are unlikely to return to pre-crisis peak levels.

Environmentally-friendly investments form part of many recently launched recovery programmes. With the right policies, they could achieve growth and a cleaner planet as well.

While climate change is forcing governments to think again about nuclear power, most countries have curtailed funding of nuclear research and development.

Every country strives for energy efficiency, but assessing it is not an easy task. Since 1971, the OECD’s energy supply per unit of GDP has fallen sharply due to changes in manufacturing output, consumer behaviour, shifts to electricity, technological progress, efficiency drives and so on.

The United States is dependent on fossil fuels for almost all its energy supply. Coal dominates electricity generation, accounting for half of its power production, with nuclear and natural gas around one-fifth each.

The emergence of China and India on the world economy still unfolds. Lifestyles are evolving fast, and that means more demand, more energy consumption and more greenhouse gas emissions. But what of the impact on climate change?

We live in an age of gadgets and gigabytes. Our mobile phones have morphed into multi-tasking life-support systems, with inbuilt cameras, calendars and messaging services. Computers are ever faster child’s play, and Internet allows us 24-hour access to the rest of the world. However, all of this comes at a price: our increasing reliance upon electricity.

When a blackout hit part of New York recently, some people blamed the air conditioning, as demand soared during a heat wave. Air conditioning has caught on around the world, which means year-round demand for energy beyond cold winters, and so bigger bills and environmental costs.

Your energy focus covers the renewable question well (No. 258-259, December 2006). But what if the renewable promise became a broken one? It might, if mindsets don’t change. Thanks to technological advances and climate change fears, energy has pushed to the front stage again. Governments have been slower to move. Also, as Vaclav Smil’s article shows, the current energy system is based on high-energy density sources, like oil and coal, supplying nationwide energy grids (“21st century energy: Some sobering thoughts”).